JOEL GREENBLATT 談投資 (Graham & Doddsville 訪問摘要)

Joel Greenblatt 是著名美國投資者, 亦時投資書作家.

他的投資紀錄超卓. 以下是 Graham & Doddsville 訪問他的部份摘要, 從中可看出他的投資功力深厚, 對價值投資概念的領略透徹.

………………………………………………………………………………………….

Q:Harkening back to the first part of your investing career, you talked about passing on ideas. How many ideas did you pass on for every idea that you ended up acting upon?

Joel: It’s a tough one. I would say it obviously depends on how selective you are. If I looked at 40 or 50 ideas, and, while perhaps 12 or 13 of them would have worked out, if I end up only buying one, that’s okay. That’s fine as long as the one I choose works out. It doesn’t matter that I missed out on 11 or 12. Not losing money is a good way to ensure that your portfolio has a good risk/reward profile. One of the things I said in You Can Be a Stock Market Genius isif you don’t lose money, most of the alternatives are good.

Even if you don’t know what the upside is – if you just know there’s upside – you can create scenarios where you have an excellent risk/reward. Positions with limited downside are the types of positions that I have loaded up on in the past. Not the positions with the biggest payoff. I could buy a lot knowing that I wouldn’t lose much and that there were good possibilities that it was worth a lot more over time. At the very least, I knew that my downside was well-protected and so I could create an asymmetric risk/ reward by saying if I don’t lose much, there are not many alternatives other than to make money.

Something else that I’ve said in my class is that if you are trying to analyze an investment and there’s a lot of uncertainty regarding a company – whether it’s new technology or new competitors, or something else – or the industry in general is uncertain such that it’s very hard to predict what’s going to happen in the future, just skip that one and find one you can analyze. If you invest in six or eight things that you’ve analyzed closely, and if you’re pretty good at valuation and you have a long time horizon to see your target valuation eventually play out, then you’re going to do incredibly well even if you’re right on only four or five of the ideas. This is especially true if you include a margin of safety so that you’re not losing too much on the ones where you’re wrong.

What I said in the beginning is true: if you’re good at valuing businesses, the market will eventually agree with you. But that’s eventually. It could be in a couple weeks or a couple years, and that’s a big difference. The traditional definition of arbitrage always went something like this: buy gold in New York and sell it simultaneously in London, and you’ll make a dollar. But if I told you, “well, I guarantee you’ll make a dollar, but you could lose half of your money first, and it could take three years for you to make that dollar, and it’s going to bounce around randomly in the interim,” that’s not quite arbitrage in the traditional sense.

It’s certainly not riskless arbitrage, but it is a type of arbitrage – it’s a type of time arbitrage. That’s very hard for people to do. Throw in the fact that you don’t always get the valuation right. Yes, if you did good valuation work, the market will agree with you. I would submit that most people cannot value most companies well. If you’re very selective, however, you can value certain companies well. And that’s what I would think about doing.

Q: With respect to your risk management strategy, appropriately sizing positions has traditionally been one area of focus for you, correct?

Joel:Yes, people would say ‘how can you own only six or eight companies,’ because during a lot of my career, six or eight positions represented 80+% of my portfolio. People thought that was crazy because of the volatility and the Sharpe ratio or whatever you might want to look at, but the point is that I look at it differently. I look at stocks not as pieces of paper that bounce around. I look at them as ownership stakes in businesses.

One of the examples that Buffett gives is as follows: suppose you sold your business and you had $1 million. You walk into a town and you want to invest the money conservatively. You might look around and see that there are 50 businesses in the town but you want to try to pick ones that you think have a nice future that you could buy at a reason-able price. If you pick six or eight of them, most people would think that owning a stake in the barbershop, the hotel, and whatever other businesses you thought had nice repeat customers that would continue to grow over time as the town grew, was a pretty conservative way to go.

You’re not throwing all of your money into one business, you’re picking six or eight businesses that you researched carefully; have strong management and look like they have good franchises. That sounds fairly conservative to me. That’s how I look at owning a portfolio of stocks. Once again, they’re not pieces of paper that bounce around.

If you’re a long-term holder and you own a chain of stores in the Midwest and something bad happens to Greece, there may be some small impact, but you’re not going to sell your business for half of what you think it’s worth all of a sudden. If I’m a shareowner in businesses, I need to have a long -term perspective that things will work out roughly as I expect, otherwise I shouldn’t own them.

Q: Is there something in your background that made you predisposed to having a long-term mindset and a commitment to ensuring a margin of safety for each investment, or is this something which you developed over time?

Joel:This is a mindset I developed as early as an undergraduate student. As I mentioned earlier, I became interested in this business by reading Ben Graham. That’s what resonated with me, so what can I say? Margin of safety and how to think about Mr. Market are things that I thought about very early in my investing career.

Graham’s tenets seemed logical and simple – simple enough even for me to understand actually! So I started reading and thinking and experiencing. Some things you have to learn by doing them wrong, so I en-courage people to risk being wrong. You can’t be a good investor without investing.

As you gain experience you start to understand risk/ reward; you start under-standing what looks like a good opportunity and what doesn’t; you recognize when you have more knowledge than the market about a given issue and when you don’t. So it’s a matter of comparing situations to your history of opportunities. I’ve also said in class that one of the important things to look at is not just what’s available now but what you think might be available in the future, and that perspective comes with time.

Here’s the other thing – unfortunately you don’t learn from your successes all that much; you learn from the things you screwed up. You have to screw up a little bit to learn what not to do again and to remember it as well. But you have to combine this with the right thought process,which I think is the key. There are a lot of smart people out there. A lot of people have financial skills and most of them fail.

The difference between those who are successful and those who fail is perspective – the viewpoint of how they look at the market – which really just comes back to Ben Graham and keeping that long-term horizon and understanding how to filter out the noise. People are bombarded left, right, and center with information, even more so now; you can bury yourself as much as you want.

Therefore, you need a simple filter through which to look at the world. Those who have a baseline from which they can really contextualize everything they look at are the people who are successful. A lot of things are driven by emotion. When things get bouncy, as long as I continue to believe that my work was good, and my thought process was right, I have to ride it out. As easy as it sounds, it’s really hard to do.

Q: Any other parting words of wisdom for our readers?

Joel:If you want to get good at investing, read a lot and practice a lot. Even if it’s not a lot of money, it’s real money. Don’t fool yourself into thinking that this is all you need to do to lead a successful life. This is fun for me; it’s fascinating. There’s nothing wrong with this field but, as I said before, I don’t think there’s much social value in it.

You can probably say that about a lot of occupations that aren’t saving lives every day, so you don’t have to feel bad about it. But I would just encourage people pursuing an investing career who are ultimately successful in it, to figure out a way to give back. Many people reading this are Columbia MBAs and pretty much all of them are, or will be, successful in some field or another. If you can figure out a nice way to give back that’s meaningful for you, that’s even more fun than being successful in whatever you choose to do. Keep that in mind.

Source extract: http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/filemgr?&file_id=7312109

 

 

李祿談投資 (2010哥倫比亞大學演講摘要)

從六四民運學生領袖到成功投資家，李祿的經歷都幾傳奇性。 這令我想起剛看完的電影“中國合伙人“， 中國改革開放這時代巨輪改寫了很多人的命運， 而這都是他們事前無法預料及想象得到。
看過李祿在哥倫比亞大學演講後，感覺他的投資功力果然深厚， 難怪芒格和巴菲特比願意給錢他投資。以下是那次演講摘要,有點長,但絕對值得一看 (筆者嘗試把一部份重點做了underline,希望有所幫助).

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Bruce Greenwald: Warren Buffett says that when he retires, there are three people he would like to manage his money. First is Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group, who you will hear from later in the course. Next is Greg Alexander of the Sequoia Fund. Third is Li Lu. He happens to manage all of Charlie Munger’s money. I have a small investment with him and in four years it is up 400%.

[Applause]

Li Lu: Columbia is where my whole life in America started. I could barely speak the language. In Columbia it was where I had a new life. It was really in the Value Investing class where I got my career start. I was really worried about my student loan debt at the time and a friend told me about this class and said I need to see a lecture from Warren Buffett.

What I heard that night changed my life. He said three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

Those were three powerful concepts. I had never viewed the stock market like that. I viewed it negatively as a place made up of manipulators who were lining their own pockets. I embarked on an intensive two year study learning everything about Buffett.

Two years after that I bought my first stock. After I graduated I worked at an investment bank for a year and realized it was a mistake. I tried to start a fund but I didn’t have a track record. The first year I managed money I lost 19%.

Being a value investor means you look at the downside before looking at the upside. Before becoming an investor you need to look at how you can fail at this game. There are all sorts of ways you can fail. You need to examine who you are and see if you could be good at it. If you could ever find something you can do well that you really like — that will be your best investment. You will do better than competitors. If you can do it with intrinsic passion, that really over time will add enormous value to you.

Back to the game of investing. This concept of margin of safety is an essential concept to be a good investor. The future is unpredictable, you will always be dealt surprises, some positive most negative. You need to build in a level of safety so that whatever happens, you will not get crushed. If you can really successfully know what you are getting into, you can pretty much navigate.

Most people are troubled by what they don’t know. The world is divided by those who know and those who don’t know. If you really know — you will not pull triggers like Wall St. traders. If you are truly intellectually honest, you would not do anything.

This class teaches you to know what you are getting into, especially accepting what things you don’t know. The game of investment is really continuous learning. Everything affects an investment, it constantly changes. You are not investing in the past but the accumulative cash flow of the future. You have to want to find a certain set up where you can know something that most people don’t know. There are plenty of things I don’t know but they don’t factor into the purchase because I am using a huge margin of safety.

Buying a dollar at 50 cents. So if things turn against you, you will be okay. That is not easy. This business is brutally competitive. It is so impossible to know everything and know exactly what is going to happen to a business from now till the end that you really have to accept that what you don’t know.

Finding an edge really only comes from a right frame of mind and years of continuous study. But when you find those insights along the road of study, you need to have the guts and courage to back up the truck and ignore the opinions of everyone else. To be a better investor, you have to stand on your own. You just can’t copy other people’s insights. Sooner or later, the position turns against you. If you don’t have any insights into the business, when it goes from $100 to $50 you aren’t going to know if it will back to $100 or $200.

So this is really difficult, but on the other hand, the rewards are huge. Warren says that if you only come up with 10 good investments in your 40 year career, you will be extraordinarily rich. That’s really what it is. This shows how different value investing is than any other subject.

So how do you really understand and gain that great insight? Pick one business. Any business. And truly understand it. I tell my interns to work through this exercise – imagine a distant relative passes away and you find out that you have inherited 100% of a business they owned. What are you going to do about it? That is the mentality to take when looking at any business. I strongly encourage you to start and understand 1 business, inside out. That is better than any training possible. It does not have to be a great business, it could be any business.

You need to be able to get a feel for how you would do as a 100% owner. If you can do that, you will have a tremendous leg up against the competition. Most people don’t take that first concept correctly and it is quite sad. People view it as a piece of paper and just trade because it is easy to trade. But if it was a business you inherited, you would not be trading. You would really seek out knowledge on how it should be run, how it works. If you start with that, you will eventually know how much that business is worth.

When I started in the business in 1997, it was in the middle of the Asian Financial Crisis. A few years later there was the Internet bubble. A couple years ago was the Great Crash of 2007 – 2008. They are billed as once in a century disasters but happen every few years. Every time it goes against you, your net worth or value of your investments might go down 50%. This is really where that insight and temperament comes in.

In a sense, you have to have a certain confidence in your own judgement and not be swayed by other people’s views.It is not easy. But that is life. It is just a given. It happens to everyone. Berkshire had at least 3 times when the stock went down 50%. It happened to Carnegie. It happened to Rockefeller. It happens to everyone. If you really made a mistake, it would not stop at 50% but go to 0.

This happens to even mighty companies. Look at the top 50 companies in America every 10 years. By the time 20-40 years go by, 2/3rds of them will be gone. By the time it goes to 100 years, there might be only a couple left. It’s just the way it is. Look at what happened to the once mighty General Motors. So thats why I’m saying is, investing is a continuous learning process because your investments are constantly changing

So for those of you that have curiosity and the temperament, this game couldn’t be better. Capitalism rewards people who are talented at capital allocator. So if you have the aptitude and temperament, it is the great game. If you don’t have that then I urge you not to go and become a nuisance. That is really what Wall Street did, they don’t really create anything they just move money around.

Letting the financial industry get too big is bad for the economy, it is just as bad as getting addicted to casinos, drugs, and alcohol. None of them are really useful, they just transfer wealth. That is what I think happened on Wall Street over the last several decades. So avoid being harmful.

With that I am open to questions.

Q: Mohnish Pabrai recently spoke about his reluctance about investing in China due to the multiple accounting books / the possibility of fraud. How do you deal with this given your own investments in China?

Li Lu: Well, you know I think he is right. Every thing has an exception though. Just because a next door neighbor is a fraud doesn’t mean you are. That is one question to ask— whether you can trust the accounting and people running the business. That can have a huge impact on the business. I suggest you spend a lot of time looking at these factors, especially if you are investing for the long haul.

Q: Why did you decide to go into venture capital? How is that different than your other investing?

Li Lu: I always had this bent that I want to build a real business. I started a venture and it was really a lot of fun. Overall, it is a tougher game than simply investing in securities because you have to evolve to the day to day changes in operations and it is just not as easy to build great businesses. Every generation has a handful of great businesses that come from no where and come to dominate their fields.

It is much more rewarding as an investor to pick those. Also, you are more likely to find managers much more capable than yourself. Overall, I learned a lot. I learned a lot in how businesses succeed and how businesses fail. It really was a lot of fun. I probably carried it too far — I eventually ran one of the businesses and it was of course a mistake.

Q: I read that when you look at an industry, you look at the most miserable failures of that industry to see whether you will invest in it. Can you talk a bit about that?

Li Lu: It goes back to understanding the business. Once you have that understanding you can extend it to understanding an industry. A certain industry might have characteristics that make it different than others. In certain industries you might have better prospects than others. Find the best of the players in the industry and the worst players.

And see how they perform over time. And if the worst players perform reasonably well relative to the great players — that tells you something about the characteristics about the industry. That is not always the case but it is often the case. Certain industries are better than others.

So if you can understand a business inside out you can then eventually extend that to understanding an industry. If you can get that insight, it is enormously beneficial. If you can then concentrate that on a business with superior economics in an industry with superior economics with good management and you get them at the right price — the chances are that you can stay for a very long time.

Q: Did you have any specific example?

Li Lu: I have studied many over the years. As I have said, don’t copy other people’s insights because it doesn’t work. Automobiles are amazing. If you look at the early days it started with several players and concentrated with just a few players that became enormously profitable. Then they became miserable. You then see how the life cycle turns with new automakers in China and India. Everything has a reason.

If you want a good idea — look at General Motors from the early days, look every 5 years and see how the performance metrics change. The Graham and Dodd Center should collect all the data and perform some kind of commentary on it.

Bruce Greenwald:Do you want me to give you the answer to that? In the 1960s, their return on capital was 46%. In the 1970s their return on capital was 28%. In the 1980s it was 9% in the 1990s it was 6%. You want to guess how negative it is now?

Li Lu: So that is really fascinating. If you have that data, the amount of insight that would yield would be astonishing. So instead of just accepting the conventional wisdom that the auto business is bad — that is just not true. Or if you say well those guys just unbelievable money machines — that is not true either. So if you can really examine those statistics and understand it that will give you an advantage for analyzing new situations like in China and India. That is really what turns me on. Understanding this gives you a tremendous leg up.

Q: I wanted to ask you about BYD. I heard that you thought it was important for them to introduce a model to the US and wanted to know why you thought that.

Li Lu: That might be a better question to ask the BYD chairman than myself. Well, If you are just talking about electric vehicles, you know the key — the heart and soul of the electric vehicle age the heart is the battery. There is the battery, electric motor, and the electric control control panel. The electric motor has been there for 100 years, control system is software that can be improved over time.

The battery is really where you get the biggest appreciation and is what determines the value of the electric vehicle. 100 years before the Model-T was introduced, the competition between electric vehicles and gasoline was not nearly as optimistic. Up and till then, 1/3rd of cars being produced were electric. It wasn’t until Rockefeller got oil extracted easily enough that it worked. Henry Ford was able to make the internal combustion work even though it wasted 85% of the energy. He was able to build the engine and produce automobiles that were cheap enough for people to buy and it took off. That is where you find the real winners.

Now, years later, we know that the way that oil is burned contributes to global warming. If it continues, the planet might still be here but all the human beings might not. Human beings have only been on the planet for a tiny bit of the earth’s history. So there are all sorts of good reasons for electric cars. Battery development has advanced so much that it is now comparable to the price and performance of traditional cars. So now with the help of companies like BYD, the balance is about to tilt towards where performance and price are getting to the level that makes them a desirable alternative. It will be desirable everywhere. Eventually, if you have a car that does all that, it will be sold everywhere.

Q: What about BYD versus others in the industry?

Li Lu: The market will determine that.

Q: Yeah – but why BYD versus others?

Li Lu: Well because we also studied all those other guys. We will see when the winner emerges whether we are right or wrong.

Q: Right – but what did you look at to reach that view?

Li Lu: There are a lot of people who have worked over 100 years making great cars. The technology for building a traditional car has been refined enough to where it can be learned in a short period. The place we are still seeing a curve of continuous rapid improvement is with the batteries for cars.

Whoever is leading the charge will have a major advantage. There is really only one company that is a leader in battery manufacturing and automobile manufacturing. There is only one company. To put this together you need a Ford to put that together. So far those two elements need to be put together. It is not an easy process.

Q: So you went to BYD in 2005 and then you brought Berkshire as well. I saw that you sold a small amount of your BYD position at the end of last year. Was it just rebalancing? Can I just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

Li Lu: Actually I started my BYD position in 2002. I sold a small amount of shares because an investor of mine had an emergency redemption.

Q: We read your profile online. I had a question –do you have any problems when trying to invest in China?

Li Lu: Yeah I do have some difficulty. I did not really see a factory plant at BYD until the end of 2008. I really did not have a better understanding till then. That really causes you to question what it is before you make an investment. With investing, you have to work with imperfect information because you are buying a piece of the future. I did not really get a chance to get more information because the problem in Asia till much later but it did not stop me from making my investment decision.

So there is a point, where if you have enough margin of safety– that is why I kept coming back to the elementary concept of margin of safety– you can allow much more uncertainty and unknowns. So the answer of the question is does that stop you from making the investment? No.

Q: So I did some research on lithium ion batteries, and I saw that BYD has a manufacturing advantage with consumer batteries. But I saw that automobile batteries are much more complex. I did not think that the idea of a good consumer battery manufacturer + an automobile maker made much sense. So when Buffett looked at the stock maybe it was a better deal but today it is this dream of vehicles that is really priced in. It does not feel like a good value investor stock. So why would you own it today?

Li Lu: Well that is interesting. One of the most fascinating things about being an investor is that surprises are part of the game. When you get into situations like BYD, you see lots of good surprises. Chuanfu and his team have this fabulous culture, everything people thought they knew turned out to be a few years late. He got into battery manufacturing in that particular way because he really had no other option. He had no money, he only had $300,000 in venture capital funding before IPO and that was it.

He raised money in an IPO and Buffett gave him $200M, now they have 160,000 employees. $6-7B in revenues, $500M in net profit. It is amazing. So he has this ability to adapt in a competitive environment. He has demonstrated that ability again again and again. The way he does automation is far cheaper than anyone else and more reliable.

He continues to surprise me with his ingenuity, to figure out ways to do something better than everyone else. What he is currently doing is very different than what everyone else has done. At the end of the day, you might look at what he has done.

So how do you look at it as an investor with imperfect information? Well I suggest you look at what he has accomplished. 8 years ago I had no idea they would go into the automobile or laptop or cellphone battery business. So that demonstrates how he is. This investment is not easy to understand because it is changing so fast, at such a large scale. An almost unheard of speed. Their manufacturing capabilities will double soon.

This year they will hire 10,000 college graduates, 8 or 9 thousand engineers. The scale is almost unparalleled. So this is why the study of history, of all the great corporations will give you a good insight in seeing what will happen with BYD. I suggested that we start with GM and analyze its performance every 5 years for 100 years to understand at least one aspect of BYD’s business.

Q: One investor came in and said talking to management is a waste of time. They will say what you want them to say. Obviously it sounds like you don’t agree with that. What do you think? Will you pay a premium for a business with a moat?

Li Lu: There is no general rule. The key in investing is to know what you know and know what you don’t know. You can know about management teams without meeting with them. Every situation is slightly different. So I come back to the point that if you know enough on other things that there is enough margin of safety. Even if you meet with management, you may not learn something. Obviously, actions speak louder.

You want to see what they have done. Everything being equal, the more you know about management, the more honest and upfront they are, the more motive they have, the better the situation is and the deeper the discount. You have to analyze it all. The key to analyzing it is you have to ask: do I really know what I think I know, do I really know what I don’t know? If you can’t answer that question, chances are you are gambling.

Q: What kind of preparation do you do before meeting a management team?

Li Lu: I don’t really have a set method. Because I usually am just curious about the business and don’t know a lot. So you are prepared and not prepared. If you are really curious, you want to learn more and study it more. When working at a hedge fund or mutual fund, you are expected to learn a business in one week. You can’t truly understand everything about a business in one week.

It took me 10 years and I am still learning new things about BYD. It is a continuous learning process. You could spend a lifetime studying a business or industry, but in a few seconds I can tell you whether or not I like it. You want to build knowledge by continually learning. There is not set preparation.

Q: Recently, Jim Chanos gave us his thesis on the China Syndrome with there possibly being a bubble.

Li Lu: Well, it is too big of a question for me. I don’t know

Q: 20 years ago you said you challenged conventional wisdom in China. Out of curiosity, in terms of value investing what do you challenge in the conventional wisdom?

Li Lu: Well, the fundamental philosophy of value investing is very sound. Its basically the three things:

1. A stock is not a piece of paper, it is a piece of ownership in a company.

2. You need a margin of safety so if you are wrong you don’t lose much.

3. In the market, most people are in it for the short term. It allows you a framework for dealing with the day to day volatility.

That is really an intelligent approach. So therefore any intelligent investing is really value investing. There is a certain level of intellectual honesty. If you have all that insight going into analyzing businesses I don’t have any arguments with it.

Q: What is your point of view on long / short positions in value investing?

Li Lu: The most profitable kind of investing is long term investing. You want to allow the time that it might take because you don’t know when the market will catch on. If you can find a business with good management with good industry fundamentals blowing it forward, you have a good opportunity and you can save money on taxes.

A short cannot be a fundamentally long term position. In the long game, the upside is unlimited. Your downside is 100%. In shorting it is opposite. Shorting is also essentially borrowing, so you need money and time on your side. If time is not on your side, you can be right but lose all your money.

The best kind of short usually has some kind of fraud. In those situations, management is determined to keep the fraud. Look at Bernie Madoff, 20 years time. You cannot afford to borrow money for 20 years. So shorting is a short term game. When those positions go against you, there is huge leverage that can utterly crush you.

In theory, long / short is okay, but if you are trading all the time you need to be in tune with all the things moving the market. None of them might be fundamental to the actual business. So you spend all your time chasing noise than studying a long term situation. If you cannot concentrate on things in the long term, and spend all your time thinking about the short term, you will not be able to develop the kinds of insights necessary to identify great investments.

From time to time, you will lose some money on paper. But it is just part of the game. This is why I closed long / short. You know I went through three bubbles. The Asian Financial Crisis, the Internet Bubble, and this most recent financial crisis. The biggest mistake I made is not being able to pick up undervalued companies where I had a unique insight but was tied up with this whole long / short thing. The money I left on the table is still adding up. I am still paying for those mistakes.

Q: In a bull market environment, how do you re-evaluate your thesis?

Li Lu: I don’t ever want to profit from a bubble. Soros does that, that is just not my game. I don’t profess any ability to understand how long a crowd will buy into a bubble. I invest in things that appear to be compelling values that continues. So that is why this game is a continuous learning process – because everything affecting the investment is constantly changing. Including the price. Including the prospects and elements of business success. You really do want to never stop learning. This game looks to be easy but it is not easy.

Q: Given your focus on international investments, how do you think about diversifying your investments regionally?

Li Lu: First of all, I did not really specialize in international investments. I started off doing most of my investments in the US and Canada. In recent years, I just find better bargains outside of it. One of the great things about being an investor is you can look anywhere and find great pockets of opportunities. You cannot do that as a venture capitalist as I experienced myself. So you can look anywhere for opportunities.

I do not take a regional approach to diversification. I have views towards certain countries and currencies, but it is not the driving force for a potential investment. If you have your fundamental things right, if you happen to have macro economic factors behind you, you can run a great wave.

Q: How is your investment style different today than when you started the fund?

Li Lu: A lot of things have changed. One bonus about this profession is you get better over time. Most professions, as you get older, you get out of the game. Take the example of competitive sports. If you are a figure skater or gymnast, after your teenage years you are out of the game. With investing, if you are doing it the right way, you get better over time. Your knowledge accumulates exponentially. When I look back at everything I have done, I would have done it all slightly differently, but that is because I am better at it today.

So if you approach it in a fundamentally sound way, as you mature, you become better and better. That process and progression is like compounding money. In fact, you can compound knowledge faster than money. If you truly love this game, I would suggest that you don’t take short cuts. It might take longer but it is more rewarding.

Q: What is the difference between being a top political criminal in China versus a hedge fund manager today (referring to the ire directed at Wall Street)?

Li Lu: I don’t consider myself a criminal. I don’t think China considers me a criminal. What I think we are doing today with our investment in BYD in China is really helping China march towards a modern era of prosperity. BYD is providing a solution to both China and the US, to migrate from the past to a way that gets us out of the unsustainable carbon age that we live in. Global warming is a vital concern to every human being, so China is providing a great contribution to everybody with BYD.

America has had a great history of invention and here is a great company in China that is about to make a major contribution to human civilization with cheap electric vehicles and solar power.

Ultimately we will have to get our energy from the sun. Most of the energy, even fossil fuels (plants that die and then go into the ground), all originally come from the sun. So if you can figure out a way to take energy from the sun and power vehicles, while using batteries to store it, inexpensively — will really make renewable energy power everything.

The combination of those things holds the key to the future of industrial civilization that we are about to embark on. We didn’t set out with BYD with this in mind, it just happened that way. With great companies, it only looks logical in retrospect. Think about how Bill Gates started Microsoft. I don’t think he knew up front that he would take the entire market — at that time it did not exist. It is the same way with our investment in BYD. Ultimately, I think finding an inexpensive way to store energy that we harness from the sun will be a huge contribution for both China and the US, but more broadly our entire civilization.

 

有一種工作

這種工作：

不需要持續創新來保持競爭力，

不怕行業被途汰，

不論規模大小，也不用很多人來完成，

沒有地域界限，

沒有退休限制，

没有年齡限制，

没有體力要求，

没有學歷要求，

不用應酬，

不用拉關係，

不用長時間工作，

不用加班，
不用多少工具或設備，

不用時常開會，

不需要你多才多藝，

不需懂辦公室政冶，

工作時間自由，

不用趕Deadline。
不過這份工作也有點要求，你得要對它懷有熱情，亦需要你不斷閱讀及思考，你也要具備一點耐性及忍耐力，還要有些時候被人當作儍人看待……我想這應該不難猜到吧.

2013 BERKSHIRE 股東年會見聞

筆者今年終於完了多年的心願, 去參加了股神年會，可以一睹巴菲特及芒格的風采真是樂事.

可以說前往這次股東年會是一件非常開心的事情, 若未去過又喜歡他們的話,筆者絕對推介。

１）會場當天下雨，天氣很涷。

２）展銷會場，筆者也買了出名的ＳＥＥ　ＣＡＮＤＩＥＳ　和　限量版ＴＥＥ。

３）大會現場。

４）ＳＨＯＷ　ＯＮ！

５）大會外。

６）有趣的ＰＯＳＴＥＲ。

７）第二天早上的ＩＮＶＥＳＴ　ＩＮYOURSELF ５Ｋ　ＲＵＮ, 整涷.

8)第一年舉行,但巳有幾千人參加.

9) 巴菲特就在我面前,TRY TO GIVE HIM FIVE，BUT NO RESPONSE......

10)下午商場開PARTY, BILL GATE 來打波.

11) BILL 唔夠打, WARREN 也來幫手.

12) 在筆者面前擦身而過,真想搭搭他們膊頭.

13) 旗下珠寶店當天大減價.

１４）晚上去食他的理至愛, ＧＯＲＡＴ　ＳＴＥＡＫＨＯＵＳＥ，好食，有驚喜。

１５）室內氣氛幾好。


到此，ＯＭＡＨＡ之行就完滿結束！註:事隔一周,巴菲特昨天突然現身中國,今次感覺上有點神秘,真不知所為何事,,..

 

 

市場規律

用有效市場理論去解釋市場特性是現代教科書常用的方法， 其最重要的理論是因市場是高效率地運作及自我收正， 所以投資者很難取得高於市場的成績。

可是它卻未能解釋何以卓越投資者如巴菲特， 彼德林冶等何以能持續戰勝市場， 箇中原因可能是這個理論忽略了主導市場的最重要因素即人性， 及其導至的不理性行為。

人類本質上的一些特性，如貪婪、恐懼、群體習性等， 支配著人類行為的規律， 這可大部份解釋了市場或個股偶有大幅波動的規律。

深入了解到這個規律，就不難掌握到市場的規律， 亦即是其自然而成的市場周期。把其型象化， 可視為傳統的海盗船機動遊戲，擺動的兩端，就好比周期頂或底部， 通常是刺激處所在，最令人興奮(害怕)，亦令人忘型， 不過忘型的時候亦正是最易犯錯的時候。

另外，擺動的幅度越大，修正時的強度及速度亦會越高。

筆者畏高，所以每次做投資决定前也想像自己在船上， 而感受著自己究竟身處在這個擺動周期的那一點，以免誤上`賊船‘。

市場規律和周期是投資者需認真對待的一大課題， 如能悟透將會受用一生。

物極則反，終而有始！

見回報，見風險，見人性

剛看完電影一代宗師，對戲裏面所說的“見自己，見天地，見眾生“ ，印象深刻。

 

看後忽有所想，如果武者要經過的三個階段是“見自己，見天地， 見眾生“，

 

那麽投資人要經過的三個階段會否就是“見回報，見風險，見人性“ 。

UNIQLO

賣衣服賣到做國家首富,不單有日本的Uniqlo,還有西班牙的Inditix及瑞典的H&M也是.其中表明了只要是市場及需求夠大,不論是Hi-tech產品如Apple還是low-tech產品如衣服都是有可為的,最重要是看公司策略及管理層能力.

不過站於投資角度看,這個坂塊風險很大,不是長期理想投資類別,因為太難估計它的良好成績可以維持多久,實在太依賴管理人質素了.這亦令我時常想起香港的Esprit.

.................................................................................................................

日本首富柳井正的创业传奇

虽已在日多年，UNIQL0那标志性的红色广告牌更是随处可见，但之前对柳井正及其缔造的优衣库帝国没有直接接触过，也没有写过任何关于柳井正或优衣库的文字。准确地说，在三菱、三井、住友、芙蓉、第一劝业银行、三和等六大日本财团巨头面前，我一直没有觉得优衣库算得上是“商业帝国”。

当时，我只知道“UNIQLO”这个名字其实来得有点歪打正着。最开始是“Unique Clothing Warehouse”的缩写“UNICLO”，但被一位香港的中国合作商在登记时不小心误写成了“UNIQL0”。不过，柳井正非但没有怪罪，反而千恩万谢，因为他觉得“Q”比“C”看起来酷多了，当即决定花大力气将当时所有的注册名和广告宣传全部改为“UNIQLO”。

当然，对于优衣库来说，我不能算完全的局外人。早在日本广岛大学求学时期，就听广岛人说，柳井正将公司从“小郡商事”更名为“UNIQL0”(准确地说是“UNICLO”)后，正式进驻的第一个地方就是我曾生活过两年多的广岛，一个不但有原子弹爆炸残痕，更有“日本三景”之首——宫岛的地方。

以至于广岛人至今还时不时地调侃道：“那个时候的优衣库是‘乡镇企业进城’。”柳井正后来在回忆录中也说：“广岛是座大城市，而优衣库当时只是一家小企业。”但如今，广岛作为优衣库的出番之地将被载人优衣库的历史，这已成为了广岛人的骄傲，只是连广岛人也不明白为什么当年“土里土气”的优衣库如今能这么火?

尽管生长在商业气息浓郁的家庭，但柳井正从小并没有什么远大的抱负。少年时，柳井正经常逃课，用他自己的话说，是个“没什么朝气的学生”。我直到来到东京后，才得知柳井正正是毕业于我所在的早稻田大学的政治经济学院。柳井正的大学岁月有些“不堪回首”，因为他几乎天天流连忘返于电影院、电玩厅、咖啡屋，偶尔还去麻将馆搓一把试试手气，学业上的荒废让他在毕业后3个月仍然是无业游民。

虽然，那个时候日本的大学处于反日美安保协定的学生运动风起云涌之时，教室里安不下一张书桌，但在那个年代，大学生是名副其实的“社会精英”。而日本的政治经济学院最早即发祥于早稻田大学，早稻田大学政治经济学院直到今天都可称得上是精英荟萃之地。柳井正没能顺利就职，多少是有些异端的。

柳井正无业游荡3个月后，在父亲朋友的帮助下才进人JUSCO(现为AEONRETAIL)超市打杂，被安排在菜刀、切菜板等厨卫用具卖场。但9个月后他就以“在超市打杂学不到什么有用的经验”为由辞职，回到了偏远的山口县宇部市老家。无奈之下，他跟着父亲干起了西装零售，但时年23岁的他又对父亲抱怨道“我不适合做零售业”。的确，他用行动证明了他的“不适合”。他在父亲的小服装店主导的第一场“改革”就因他的“指手画脚”、“口无遮拦”且“出言不逊”，而逼走了店内仅有的6名创业老员工中的5位，而唯一能够忍气吞声、选择留下的员工只有浦利治一人。

如今浦利治则成了优衣库的常务监察董事，在优衣库管理层中位居第五。

然而，就是这样的柳井正，在2009年60岁生日时，却迎来了上帝赐予的最好的生日礼物——以61亿美元身价荣登《福布斯》日本首富，同时以256票蝉联业界公认的日本产业能率大学“最佳经营者”排行榜第一名，远高于排第二名的丰田汽车总裁丰田章男的42票。正如柳井正所言：“没钱的人买优衣库，有钱的人也会买优衣库。我们提倡‘百搭’，‘百搭’需要品位，品位很好的人会买优衣库，品位一般的人也会买优衣库。我们拥有很好的质量，价格又便宜，这是我们在经济危机中能够取胜的关键。”

可以说，是2008年的金融危机成就了优衣库。在金融危机影响下，全球首富比尔·盖茨2009年的资产缩水了180亿美元，“股神”沃伦·巴菲特的财富缩水了250亿美元，日本任天堂公司前社长山内溥的身家更是缩水至45亿美元。而柳井正却成了例外，迅销公司2008年的股价逆势上涨了63%，优衣库的销售量也直线上升，新的门店在全世界遍地开花。

2010年，柳井正的身价暴涨50%，达到92亿美元，再度蝉联日本首富。2010年1月，美国销售协会向柳井正社长颁发“国际奖”，他成为日本战后继1972年松坂屋总裁伊藤铃三郎、1985年儿JSCO总裁冈田卓也、1998年伊藤洋华堂总裁伊藤雅俊之后第4位获此殊荣的企业家。而柳井正也被誉为日本战后继PANASONIc创始人松下幸之助、SONY创始人盛田昭夫、KDDI创始人稻盛和夫之后的新一代“经营之神”。

然而，在接受媒体采访时，柳井正总是会刻意回避“日本首富”的称呼。关于金钱，他曾说过一句名言：“钱仅仅是一个结果，所以大多数成功人士并不是为挣钱而工作。在某种程度上，他们是想做生意，然后金钱随之而来。如果你只是追逐金钱，金钱就会躲开你。”

平心而论，时装行业正日益成为催生首富的摇篮，除柳井正在《福布斯》排行榜中成为日本首富外，ZARA老板Inditex集团主席Amancio Ortega早几年就成了西班牙首富，H&M的Person家族也是和宜家IKEA的创始人Ingvar Kamprad轮流坐庄瑞典首富，而Persson家族的年轻一代Karl-Johan Persson又被任命为公司的CEO，于2010年7月1日接替了退休的职业经理人RolfEriksen。

优衣库从当年一家名不见经传的服装店发展成为世界级的服装帝国，柳井正用了整整38年时间，从偏远的山口县宇部市一步步地走到了日本最高最现代化的综合商业新地标——东京中城大厦(midtown tower)。

有机会到访迅销公司的人，都会对其特殊的工作环境留下深刻印象。那里的办公室没有隔断，没有固定的办公桌，所有部门的工作人员都在一个无隔断的大房间里工作，人们可以抱着笔记本随意走动，所有的会议都控制在10分钟内结束，晚上7点后，公司里准时熄灯，原则上禁止加班，因为优衣库的工作标语是“工作要趁早完成”。在中城大厦33楼的办公室，柳井正可以俯瞰整个东京，遥望富士山，而他的野心恐怕还远不止于此。

为了尽最大可能地解开优衣库为何能崛起、又将何去何从的秘密，我遍访了与柳井正熟识的相关人士。

每一家企业都有自己的秘密，且一般不会出示给一个不相干的人，但我还是得到了大量的第一手日文资料。与此同时，我将市场上所见的涉及优衣库的日文书籍全部购人，细心地阅读，并参阅了大量的媒体报道，所有的这些都成为我了解柳井正及其公司的参照。在此之前，恐怕还很少有人能如此系统和细致地研究这些尘封在历史背后的故事。

迄今为止，人们对优衣库的认识岔开成两个极端。优衣库的赞美者们把它描绘成迅速崛起、摧城拔寨、几乎无往不胜的“创业神话”，而柳井正本人则是天生的富有韬略的创业家和经营天才，不可模仿。但我却深感所谓的“天才”更多的是成功后世人赋予的光环，柳井正身上超越常人的“努力”更值得一写，或许与唐骏相比，柳井正更有资格说“我的成功可以复制”。

优衣库的批评者们则认定它只是日本泡沫经济破灭后，在“失去的20年”的大背景下，持续的通货紧缩导致的产物，一旦日本经济走出泥沼，作为“廉价品”的代表，优衣库将无法在日本市场立足，必定会走向死亡，而柳井正则是“时势造英雄”下沽名钓誉之徒，更有滨矩子、小岛健辅等知名的经济学者批判“优衣库将致国家破产”、“优衣库是消费文明的退化”。但用这样的评论，我们难以解释为什么优衣库也能在海外拓疆扩土。实际上，优衣库致力于“低价优质”，而非简单的“低价”可以概括，我们恐怕很难断定致力于“低价优质”完美结合的公司会走向死亡。

事实上，优衣库的历史充满了艰难与挫折，在柳井正为急于上市融资而疯狂扩张的时期，优衣库新开店铺的数量曾经还不及关店的数量，直至现在，优衣库在喜庆新店开张的背后往往伴随着赢利不强或持续亏损的分店悄无声息地关门倒下，一点都不夸张地说，如柳井正所言优衣库是“一胜九败”。优衣库能有今天这样巨大的成就，是“痴人”般追逐梦想下、战胜了重重严峻危机后得来的，而危机至今仍无处不在，也正因为如此，柳井正坦言“成功一日可弃”。

在20世纪七八十年代，柳井正抓住了日本经济腾飞、日元升值的历史机遇，但也遭遇了80年代末90年代初日本经济泡沫后，银行呆、坏账严重，以至于无法从银行融到发展资金的绝地窘境。而在90年代经济低迷、大多数企业都不景气的情况下，柳井正又绕过了中间商直接向供应商购货，还挑战了“日本顾客抵制made in china”的观点(优衣库服装的90%为中国制造)，依靠“廉价优质”策略迅速笼络住了消费者的心理，并准确地把握住了全球化的脉搏而疯狂地成长起来。

当1999年，严格到只在其考上高中和早稻田大学时表扬过他的父亲柳井等去世时，柳井正在丧礼上忍不住泪流满面地说：“父亲是我这一生最大的竞争对手。”而也就是在这一年，优衣库实现了在东京证券交易所的成功上市，这距离柳井正1974年真正接管“小郡商事”正好25年，而柳井等从1949年、也是柳井正出生之年创办“小郡商事”起，到交手给柳井正也正好是25年。在前一个25年，柳井等将“小郡商事”做到了1亿日元的销售额，在后一个25年，柳井正将优衣库的销售额提高到1110亿日元，成为日本服装业界TOP级企业，而2010年，优衣库的销售额高达约9000亿日元。

就像优衣库历经经济腾飞、日元升值后，又遭经济泡沫破灭、经济陷入低迷，再逢全球化时代到来一样，柳井正是这一过程中最重要的人物之一。他的智慧、激情和韬略为我们提供了一场完美的话剧。

他迄今为止都在被一种梦想所引诱，当他出色地实现了一个梦想以后，依然会有新的梦想在前面召唤。

“我是个非常严格的老板。我经常不满于员工的松懈，现在的年轻人真是过得太舒服了，他们并不认为挑战或者争取什么有多酷，他们根本不明白那种感觉有多好。但对于那些想独立并认真工作的年轻人来说，我可能也是个理想主义的老板。我允许员工挑战自己的极限，如果他在优衣库做得不开心，他可以尝试新的商业环境，调到我们的其他业务领域，或者就在优衣库里让他换一个部门继续干”，柳井正如是说道。

日本着名的商业评论家疋田文明认为，柳井正“对工作的严格要求”与“对属下的温情”，是优衣库不断成长的两个原动力。在外人看来，柳井正“非常冷酷”，但与他一起工作的人却说“柳井社长是一个害羞、认真、稳重、和蔼的人，和他一起工作就像在家里一样舒适”。在优衣库公司，有不少职员甚至是柳井正的“粉丝”。

他现在的梦想是让优衣库2020年的年销售额达到5万亿日元，如此优衣库将超越GAP、ZARA成为世界第一服装零售品牌。其实，柳井正也知道要实现这个目标很难，2010年10月9日他在接受日本知名财经杂志《东洋经济》采访时表示：“成为世界第一，只要有30%的可能，我就将勇往直前。”他也不断地激励公司员工，“我们必须给自己定个高点的目标，目标设置低了，如果可以轻易实现，就不是个好目标，最好的目标应该是一个不可能完成的任务”。

每年新年，柳井正都会坐在电脑旁给公司全体员工写一封信，而迅销公司员工会在次日早上收到这封信。信的内容主要是总结与展望，憧憬未来3年公司将达到什么样的规模。就是这些一度被很多员工看做是“天方夜谭”的规划，后来都如期地变为了现实。“理想主义者”柳井正及其优衣库的发展历史告诉我们，什么是梦想，什么是现实，在梦想与现实之间创造伟业必须走过的那座桥梁又在什么地方。

和其他的大企业家不同，柳井正几乎与政界、财界没有任何往来。在公司内部，他也几乎从来不做个人演讲，更不喜欢举办繁琐的庆祝仪式。也许是做休闲服装的原因，优衣库的员工很少西装革履，通常都是身穿T恤或宽松随意的衬衫，裤子则爱穿斜纹裤或灯芯绒裤，与他们的老板柳井正如出一辙。这样的着装上班在日本可谓罕见。

但若把柳井正本人看成完美主义的化身，也许又会让人失望。他是个聪明的战略家，有着惊人的时尚触觉，从样品审核到色彩选择都是柳井正一手决定，但这种细致人微的管理也迫使不少才华横溢的主管离开了公司。之前他曾试图放弃日常工作的独断专行，但没有成功，如今他倒很维护自己的干预政策，他说：“一个好的管理者必须注重细节。”

同时，柳井正手头也没有什么明确的接班人。虽然他对外界表示打算在65岁(2014年)前让出社长宝座、只保留会长职位，但是，回顾优衣库的历史，我们会发现2002年他也曾这样做过，只是2005年就上演了“社长复归”的历史性一幕，将社长宝座从43岁的玉塚元一手上收回。柳井正虽极力挽留玉塚元一担任公司的取缔役(相当于董事)，但这位从日本IBM公司转任优衣库4年即荣登公司社长宝座的“青年帅才”最终还是执意离开了他。

虽然，两人都公开表示仍彼此尊重，但两人之间的“不和”传闻至今仍然是日本社会的一大话题。

玉塚元一公开表示：“柳井正先生的‘owner’意识太重是我辞职的最大原因。”而柳井正则在回忆录中声明“玉塚元一追求安定增长的性格是被更换的最主要原因”，2010年10月9日，柳井正在接受《东洋经济》专访时再次重申了这一说法。

不过，就在3个月后的2011年1月11日，玉塚元一即走马上任日本超级便利店连锁巨头——罗森公司副总裁兼国内部CEO，成为罗森公司未来最有力的接班人，罗森公司现任总裁新浪刚史给出的理由是：“罗森和优衣库虽业务内容不同，但本质上都属于零售业，而玉塚元一在优衣库的经验值得肯定、令人期待。”

实际上，在玉塚元一之前，柳井正委以重任栽培的泽田贵司也离开了他。泽田贵司和玉塚元一年龄相仿，被外界形容为“亲如手足”，玉塚元一离开优衣库后不久与泽田贵司合作创办了Revamp公司。

当有人就继任问题穷追不舍时，柳井正又一次挑战了日本传统商业模式，表示不打算把公司交给儿子们，他们会是大股东，在董事会有一席之地，但不会运营公司，他说，“那些靠后代继承的公司现在业绩都不好”。

今天“丰田神话”的破灭，似乎验证了这一点，不过，“从长远来看，那些一人独揽大权的公司下场其实也是如此。”国际经济学界曾把日本的终身雇佣制、年功序列和企业内工会誉为日式经营成功的“三大神器”，但“失去的20年”让日式经营面临转型，而柳井正在优衣库自始至终贯彻的“成果主义”改革，正是对这种旧体制的公然反抗，柳井正视“三大神器”确保的“安定成长”为“病”。

“这已不是柳井正一个人和优衣库一家企业的历史，”我内心愈发感觉到，“这是关于企业如何融入全球化的最好案例，也是日本从20世纪70年代至今，历经经济腾飞却又跌人经济低迷的历史缩影”。

摘自中國企業家