2013年12月29日 星期日

vv組合年度簡報 2013


現在距離踏入2014年只餘兩天,今年截至這刻,組合的表現優於恆生指數15%以上,而相比起國企指數或有稍多於20%的正回報差距。誠言,這個年回報是欣喜的,不過可以預期,明年的回報或許沒有這麼好,因為長期做出年回報20%是屬於頂尖投資者的成績表,所以這組合爭取的參考年回報是15%,組合重點放在Risk Adjusted Return。今年組合年終的狀況如下:
十大持股 (比重分先後)
招商 / 濰柴 / 民行 / 復藥 / 新奧 / 潤燃 / 復星 / 比亞迪 / 平保 / 昆能

其他持股 (比重分先後)
中聯 / 上藥 / 惠理 / 蒙牛 / 電能 / 長建 / 雨潤 / 百麗 / 恒安 / 雷士

表現五強2013
復藥 / 新奧 / 潤燃 / 比亞迪 / 蒙牛

表現五弱2013
昆能 / 百麗 / 雷士 / 長建 /  民行
組合表現

今年組合優異表現之原因從上面可以看到,主要因五強的持股比重較高,而它們今年有著較大升幅,一般有高於50%。而反觀五弱,它們最差的只是錄得小於10%的跌幅。值得留意的是,這只是偶然的,在一般情況下,那一些持股能在年內跑出在事前是無從預計的,所以組合的一年實現回報也不是事前可以掌握的,參考價值一般。所以要看組合平均表現還是從長期(十年以上)角度看比較合理及中肯。

在這裏特別想談談招商和民行這對銀行孖寶,它們的合計比重佔組合最高,不過隨著其他成員的升幅,它們的比重持續下降。從這裏可看到,適度的分散投資是有其必要性的。自從2008世紀金融風暴後它們持逐表現不佳,今年仍如是,不過它們逐步已下跌至淨資產值水平,而年息大部份也有5%以上。可以說,如無大規模國內金融危機爆發,這些估值是嚴重被低估的。
我傾向相信國內金融改革是有序進行,始終高民間儲蓄率,財政穩健的政府及低消費槓桿仍然能寄望給予支撐。不過作為投資人,這些宏觀經濟因素都不是能夠真正掌握旳,更實際的做法似乎還是做好價值發掘及風險管理。

若要預計那一些成員能在2014年會有較好表現,這其實跟賭大細沒有多大分別,因為就算能對個別持股有100%信心認為被低估,但這是不能代表它一定能在一年內反映其價值的。短視的投資心態是不利於投資者的。不過若當是玩票性質也無妨,這裏的瞎猜可能是濰柴、中聯、雨潤。

周期及非週期配置

今年組合明顯的一個研究重點是怎樣管理好周期及非周期類的比例。截至今年底,組合適量加入了一些相應地較非周期性的成員, 這亦反映在組合的波動性減少上。非週期性股票總給人一種沉悶及低回報之感覺,一般被受冷落,但有趣的是,現實裏很多時其實熱門的股票長期回報可能更差。不過怎樣才是如假包換的非周期股,感覺其實不是那麼容易界定。這是重要的議題,還在研究中......

回報指標

以往指標一般定在年回報15%上,但漸漸覺得這有點不切實際,如上提及,這種指標是不具備預視性的,刻意追求常會令投資人分心。未來這個15%只會作參考性指標,不會刻意為之。心態上會更多放在過程及框架完善上,深信管理好過程及投資框架,好的結果自然伴隨,這樣做法在投資上合理性較高。

中國

一如既往,對於中國的長期前景仍然抱持正面態度。另外,中國始終是比較熟悉的市場,擁有一個市場的熟悉及敏銳度對投資者是一種優勢。雖然這裏未有足夠能力分析中國經濟,不過從基本面看,和其他政治穩定的國家一樣,中國人這麼多年來也極為渴望提升生活質素,而新的「決定」要點,就是把重點落在開放市場。
當市場及社會環境,政府政策都越來越倚向這方向,民管商業活動自然越加活躍,計而進入汰弱留強,百花齊放階段,最終把巨大的內需潛力釋放出來,這是值得期待的,當然期間道路不平坦是可以理解。固隨著時間推移,我不會低估被潛伏巳久而終被釋放的那股基本人性渴求的爆炸力。

投資環境

中港股市全年在PE低位運行,這刻恆指大約11.5倍,而國指大約9.5倍,都是處歷史較低位置,而今年大部份藍籌盈利也是有增長(四月全年業績後恒指國指估值相對更低),這反映投資情緒仍然是審慎的,一般擔心著中國經濟能否持續發展。雖然不能排除這個可能性,但是很多估值也巳經反映了這些擔憂。在這樣的低估值區間投資,安全系數或反而會是較高的。

投資原則

坊間有很多不同而又成功的投資法,但是沒有甚麼比建立起一個適合自己而有效的投資框架來得重要。在2014年,相信以下幾點仍然是vv投資框架的原則,它們提供了風險管理及盈利基礎。
- 組合管理 / 適度分散 / 企業分析 / 價值發掘 / 適時買賣 / 長期心態

HAPPY INVESTING!

vv.founder

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2013組合最終回報

vv組合 = 23.2%

vv+組合 = 9.6%

綜合回報 = 19.2%

恆指收 23306,回報 = 2.9%
國指收 10816,回報 = -5.4%







2013年12月17日 星期二

Tennis Ball, Circle, 30000


這是一篇有意思的演講, 很喜歡講者巧妙地把他認為最重要的三個概念型像化,令人不易忘記. 這正是記憶法方法的很好示範.

不過當中有些想法就未必適合用於做投資了.

....................................................................

Drew Houston's Commencement address by Drew Houston '05, the CEO of Dropbox

'I stopped trying to make my life perfect, and instead tried to make it interesting.'

Below is the prepared text of the Commencement address by Drew Houston '05, the CEO of Dropbox, for MIT's 147th Commencement held June 7, 2013.

Thank you Chairman Reed, and congratulations to all of you in the class of 2013.

I'm so happy to be back at MIT, and it's an honor to be here with you today. I still wear my Brass Rat, and turning this ring around on graduation day is still one of the proudest moments of my life.

There are a lot of reasons why this is a special day, but the reason I'm so excited for all of you is that today is the first day of your life where you no longer need to check boxes.

For your first couple decades, success in life has meant jumping through one hoop after another: get these test scores, get into this college. Take these classes, get this degree. Get into this prestigious institution so you can get into the next prestigious institution. All of that ends today.

The hard thing about planning your life is you have no idea where you're going, but you want to get there as soon as possible. Maybe you'll start a company, or cure cancer, or write the great American novel. Or who knows? Maybe things will go horribly wrong. I had no idea.

Being up here in robes and speaking to all of you today wasn't exactly part of my plan seven years ago. In fact, I've never really had a grand plan — and what I realize now is that it's probably impossible to have one after graduation, if ever.

I've thought a lot about what's different about the life you're beginning today. I've thought about what I would do if I had to start all over again. What got you here was basically being smart and working hard. But nobody tells you that after today, the recipe for success changes. So what I want to do is give you a little cheat sheet, the one I would have loved to have had on my graduation day.

If you were to look at my cheat sheet, there wouldn't be a lot on it. There would be a tennis ball, a circle, and the number 30,000. I know this doesn't make any sense right now, but bear with me.

I started my first company in a Chili's when I was 21. My cofounder, Andrew Crick, and I had never done this before. We were wondering if you needed to wear a suit to City Hall, or if you needed to make a company seal for stamping important documents. It turns out you can just go online and fill out a form and be done in about two minutes. It was a little anti-climactic, but we were in business. Over onion strings we decided that our company was going to make a new kind of online course for the SAT. Most kids back then were still using these old-school 800-page books, and the other online prep courses weren't very good. We called it Accolade, an SAT vocab word meaning an award of distinction. Well, actually, we called it "The Accolade Group, LLC" which we thought sounded a lot more impressive.

I stopped at Staples on the way home to pick up some card stock. Clearly, the most important order of business was to Photoshop a logo and print out some business cards that said "Founder" on them. The next order of business was to hand them out at conferences, and tell girls "why yes, I do have a company." It was awesome.

But the best part was learning all kinds of new things. I lived in my fraternity house every summer, and up on the fifth floor there's a ladder that goes up to the roof. I had this green nylon folding chair that I'd drag up there along with armfuls of business books I bought off Amazon and I'd spend every weekend reading about marketing, sales, management and all these other things I knew nothing about. I wasn't planning to get my MBA on the roof of Phi Delta Theta, but that's what happened.

A couple years later, things started going downhill. I felt like I had to paddle harder and harder to make progress, and at some point I just snapped and couldn't deal with any more math questions about parallel lines or the train leaving Memphis at 3:45. I figured something was wrong with me. I felt guilty for being so unproductive. Starting a company had been my dream, and, well, maybe I didn't have what it takes after all.

So I took a little break. Of course, if you're in course 6, sometimes "taking a break" means writing a poker bot. For those of you who don't know what a poker bot is, what happens when you play poker online is first, you sit for hours and click buttons, and then you lose all your money. A poker bot means you can have your computer lose all your money for you.

But it was a fascinating challenge. I was possessed. I would think about it in the shower. I would think about it in the middle of the night. It was like a switch went on — suddenly I was a machine.

In the middle of all this, my mom and dad wanted all of us to come up to New Hampshire to spend a family weekend together. But I really wanted to keep working on my poker bot. So I pull up in my Accord and open the trunk, and next I'm dragging all my computer stuff and all these wires into our little cottage. The dining room table wasn't big enough so I started moving all the pots and pans off the stove to make room for all my monitors. This time it was my mom who thought something was wrong with me. She was convinced I was going to jail.

I was going to say work on what you love, but that's not really it. It's so easy to convince yourself that you love what you're doing — who wants to admit that they don't? When I think about it, the happiest and most successful people I know don't just love what they do, they're obsessed with solving an important problem, something that matters to them. They remind me of a dog chasing a tennis ball: their eyes go a little crazy, the leash snaps and they go bounding off, plowing through whatever gets in the way. I have some other friends who also work hard and get paid well in their jobs, but they complain as if they were shackled to a desk.

The problem is a lot of people don’t find their tennis ball right away. Don't get me wrong — I love a good standardized test as much as the next guy, but being king of SAT prep wasn’t going to be mine. What scares me is that both the poker bot and Dropbox started out as distractions. That little voice in my head was telling me where to go, and the whole time I was telling it to shut up so I could get back to work. Sometimes that little voice knows best.

It took me a while to get it, but the hardest-working people don't work hard because they're disciplined. They work hard because working on an exciting problem is fun. So after today, it's not about pushing yourself; it's about finding your tennis ball, the thing that pulls you. It might take a while, but until you find it, keep listening for that little voice.

Let's go back to the summer after my graduation, the summer you're about to have. One of my fraternity brothers, Adam Smith, and his friend Matt Brezina were starting a company and we decided it would be fun for all of us to work together out of one apartment.

It was the perfect summer — well, almost perfect. The air conditioner was broken so we were all coding in our boxers. Adam and Matt were working around the clock, but as time went on they kept getting pulled away by potential investors who would share their secrets and take them on helicopter rides. I was a little jealous — I had been working on my company for a couple years and Adam had only been at it for a couple months. Where were my helicopter rides?

Things only got worse. August rolled around and Adam gave me the bad news: they were moving out. Not only was my supply of Hot Pockets cut off, but they were off to Silicon Valley, where the real action was happening, and I wasn't.

Every now and then I'd give Adam a call and hear how things were going. Things were always pretty good. "We met with Vinod this afternoon," he would tell me. Vinod Khosla is the billionaire investor and cofounder of Sun Microsystems. Then Adam dropped the bomb. "He's going to give us five million dollars."

I was thrilled for him, but it was a shock for me. Here was my faithful beer pong partner and my little brother in the fraternity, two years younger than me. I was out of excuses. He was off to the Super Bowl and I wasn't even getting drafted. He had no idea at the time, but Adam had given me just the kick I needed. It was time for a change.

They say that you're the average of the 5 people you spend the most time with. Think about that for a minute: who would be in your circle of 5? I have some good news: MIT is one of the best places in the world to start building that circle. If I hadn't come here, I wouldn't have met Adam, I wouldn't have met my amazing cofounder, Arash, and there would be no Dropbox.

One thing I've learned is surrounding yourself with inspiring people is now just as important as being talented or working hard. Can you imagine if Michael Jordan hadn’t been in the NBA, if his circle of 5 had been a bunch of guys in Italy? Your circle pushes you to be better, just as Adam pushed me.

And now your circle will grow to include your coworkers and everyone around you. Where you live matters: there’s only one MIT. And there's only one Hollywood and only one Silicon Valley. This isn't a coincidence: for whatever you're doing, there's usually only one place where the top people go. You should go there. Don’t settle for anywhere else. Meeting my heroes and learning from them gave me a huge advantage. Your heroes are part of your circle too — follow them. If the real action is happening somewhere else, move.

The last trap you might fall into after school is "getting ready." Don't get me wrong: learning is your top priority, but now the fastest way to learn is by doing. If you have a dream, you can spend a lifetime studying and planning and getting ready for it. What you should be doing is getting started.

Honestly, I don't think I've ever been "ready." I remember the day our first investors said yes and asked us where to send the money. For a 24 year old, this is Christmas — and opening your present is hitting refresh over and over on bankofamerica.com and watching your company's checking account go from 60 dollars to 1.2 million dollars. At first I was ecstatic — that number has two commas in it! I took a screenshot — but then I was sick to my stomach. Someday these guys are going to want this back. What the hell have I gotten myself into?

You already know this feeling: at MIT we call it "drinking from the firehose." It’s about as fun as it sounds, and all of us have the internal bleeding to prove it. But we’ve also learned it's good for you. Today, one valve shuts off. Now you need to go out and find another firehose.

Dropbox has been mine. As you might expect, building this company has been the most exciting, interesting and fulfilling experience of my life. What I haven't really shared is that it's also been the most humiliating, frustrating and painful experience too, and I can't even count the number of things that have gone wrong.

Fortunately, it doesn't matter. No one has a 5.0 in real life. In fact, when you finish school, the whole notion of a GPA just goes away. When you're in school, every little mistake is a permanent crack in your windshield. But in the real world, if you're not swerving around and hitting the guard rails every now and then, you're not going fast enough. Your biggest risk isn't failing, it's getting too comfortable.

Bill Gates's first company made software for traffic lights. Steve Jobs's first company made plastic whistles that let you make free phone calls. Both failed, but it's hard to imagine they were too upset about it. That's my favorite thing that changes today. You no longer carry around a number indicating the sum of all your mistakes. From now on, failure doesn't matter: you only have to be right once.

I used to worry about all kinds of things, but I can remember the moment when I calmed down. I had just moved to San Francisco, and one night I couldn't sleep so I was on my laptop. I read something online that said "There are 30,000 days in your life." At first I didn't think much of it, but on a whim I tabbed over to the calculator. I type in 24 times 365 and — oh my God, I'm almost 9,000 days down. What the hell have I been doing?

(By the way: you guys are 8,000 days down.)

So that’s how 30,000 ended up on the cheat sheet. That night, I realized there are no warmups, no practice rounds, no reset buttons. Every day we're writing a few more words of a story. And when you die, it's not like "here lies Drew, he came in 174th place." So from then on, I stopped trying to make my life perfect, and instead tried to make it interesting. I wanted my story to be an adventure — and that's made all the difference.

My grandmother is here today, and next week we'll be celebrating her 95th birthday. We talk more on the phone now that I’ve moved out to California. But one thing that's stuck with me is she always ends our phone calls with one word: "Excelsior," which means "ever upward."

And today on your commencement, your first day of life in the real world, that's what I wish for you. Instead of trying to make your life perfect, give yourself the freedom to make it an adventure, and go ever upward. Thank you.
 

2013年12月3日 星期二

投資最重要的二、三事


對於價值投資者來說, 除了經常細讀巴菲特的投資哲學, 另一位著名投資家 Howard Mark 的投資哲學亦是極之值得細讀。他剛剛又發放了新的 Memo, 一如以往,他著重於分析市場投資環境及風險,在這方面他的把握及洞察能力是極強的, 而今次的 Memo 亦不例外。

另外, 其需然成名於投資不良資產 (Distressed asset), 這有別於一般的二級市場股票投資, 但其整體的投資理念是非常值得借鑑。尤其是在規避風險的層面上。下面收錄了那份 Memo 的 Highlight 供有興趣者參考 (可走入連結看全文)。

筆者認為, 如果想長期獲得優於平均的投資回報, 有效地掌握以下的二、三事是極其重要的 :
1. 風險規避能力 - 這個需要投資者對投資環境及風險有良好的評估能力及擁有審慎的投資態度。這個範疇對長期投資成績起著關鍵作用, Howard Mark 是一個好的學習對象。
 
2. 分析投資標及估值能力 - 這個不用多說了。如果不能有效地掌握, 那麼投資成功率會較低。這領域巴菲特是固中强手, 非常值得學習。
 
3. 自身評估能力 - 認識自己是那類型人, 找出適合的投資方法. 這是非常重的, 但亦是常被忽略的一點, 不同的性格是需要找出相對適合的投資風格才行, 強行模仿一般是無效的。不過, 要做好這方面就要倚靠自己了。

HAPPY INVESTING!

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For full article, visit the below link.
Archieves from -  http://www.oaktreecapital.com/memo.aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

"In short, sometimes the credit window is open to anyone in search of capital (meaning dumb deals get done), and sometimes it slams shut (meaning even deserving companies can’t raise money). "

"In fact, one way they strive to win the opportunity to put money to work is by doing increasingly dangerous things."

"Today’s financial market conditions are easily summed up: There’s a global glut of liquidity, minimal interest in traditional investments, little apparent concern about risk, and skimpy prospective returns everywhere. Thus, as the price for accessing returns that are potentially adequate (but lower than those promised in the past), investors are readily accepting significant risk in the form of heightened leverage, untested derivatives and weak deal structures. "

"Now we’re seeing another upswing in risky behavior. It began surprisingly soon after the crisis (see Warning Flags, May 2010), spurred on by central bank policies that depressed the return on safe investments. It has gathered steam ever since, but not to anywhere near the same degree as in 2006-07."

"When people start to posit that fundamentals don’t matter and momentum will carry the day, it’s an omen we must heed.

"While the extent is nowhere as dramatic as in 2006-07 – and the psychology behind it isn’t close to being as bullish or risk-blind – I certainly sense a significant increase in the acceptance of risk. The bottom line is that when risk aversion declines and the pursuit of return gathers steam, issuers can do things in the capital markets that are impossible in more prudent times."

"I believe most strongly that the riskiest thing in the investment world is the belief that there’s no risk. "

"Nevertheless, many investors are accepting (or maybe pursuing) increased risk. The reason, of course, is that they feel they have to. "

"In short, it’s my belief that when investors take on added risks – whether because of increased optimism or because they’re coerced to do so (as now) – they often forget to apply the caution they should. That’s bad for them. But if we’re not cognizant of the implications, it can also be bad for the rest of us."

"Risk aversion isthe essential element in sane markets. "

"The result is a more dangerous world where asset prices are higher, prospective returns are lower, risk is elevated, the quality and safety of new issues deteriorates, and the premium for bearing risk is insufficient."

"It’s one of my first principles that we never know where we’re going – given the unreliability of macro forecasting – but we ought to know where we are. “Where we are” means what the temperature of the market is: Are investors risk-averse or risk-tolerant? Are they behaving cautiously or aggressively? And thus is the market a safe place or a risky one?"

"Certainly risk tolerance has been increasing of late; high returns on risky assets have encouraged more of the same; and the markets are becoming more heated. The bottom line varies from sector to sector, but I have no doubt that markets are riskier than at any other time since the depths of the crisis in late 2008 (for credit) or early 2009 (for equities), and they are becoming more so."

"Is This a Sell Signal? If Not, Then What? No, I don’t think it’s time to bail out of the markets. Prices and valuation parameters are higher than they were a few years ago, and riskier behavior is observed. But what matters is the degree, and I don’t think it has reached the danger zone yet...... A rise in risk tolerance is something that should get your attention and focus your concentration.......I think most asset classes are priced fully – in many cases on the high side of fair – but not at bubble-type highs."

"I repeat Warren’s injunction for the simple reason that you just can’t put it any better. When others are acting imprudently, making the world a riskier place, our caution level should rise in response."

"Over the last 2-3 years, my motto for Oaktree has been consistent: “move forward, but with caution."